KAMPALA — The Ministry of Agriculture, Animal Industry and Fisheries (MAAIF) has reassured coffee and cocoa farmers that the recent decline in commodity prices is a temporary market adjustment and does not signal a loss of global demand.
In a statement issued on September 20, 2026, Agriculture Minister Frank Tumwebaze attributed the volatility in coffee and cocoa prices largely to increased global supply, including the arrival of Brazil’s completed coffee harvest, rising exports from Vietnam and a reported 30% increase in Ivory Coast’s cocoa harvest.
Tumwebaze said international prices had recently come under pressure after a period of strong performance, with Arabica coffee falling to about US$3.03 per pound by September 3 and Robusta trading at around US$3,426 per tonne.
International cocoa prices also recorded sharp declines, with London cocoa falling 5.9% in one session and December New York cocoa dropping 7.1%, according to the Ministry.
The Minister said the developments should be understood against broader global market factors, including supply, inventories, weather, shipping conditions, currencies and demand in major producing and consuming countries.
Uganda faces drought pressure
The Ministry also pointed to domestic weather conditions as a factor affecting Uganda’s coffee production.
Prolonged drought and unusually high temperatures in Greater Masaka, Kyotera, Sembabule and Luwero have affected flowering, cherry development, bean filling and processing out-turn, with the Ministry estimating that out-turn in affected areas is about 10% below normal.
Uganda exported 846,376 bags of coffee weighing 60 kilogrammes each in July 2026, down from 997,105 bags in July 2025.
Export earnings fell from US$250.7 million to US$204.1 million over the same period, representing an 18.6% decline in value. Reuters also reported the 15.1% fall in export volume, citing Ministry data.
The July shipments comprised 775,148 bags of Robusta and 71,228 bags of Arabica, according to government data.
Robusta prices fall while Arabica gains
Tumwebaze said the recent decline has not affected all coffee varieties in the same way.
The Ministry’s indicative farm-gate prices for the first half of September put Robusta FAQ at Shs11,500–12,000 per kilogramme, compared with Shs13,500–14,000 in September 2025.
Arabica parchment, however, rose to about Shs15,500–16,000 per kilogramme from Shs14,000–15,000 during the same period last year.
The Ministry therefore advised farmers against panic harvesting of immature coffee, saying quality remains a major factor in determining the prices offered by traders.
Uganda’s Coffee Development Authority continues to publish daily market and farm-gate price information for different coffee grades.
Tumwebaze said farmers should focus on properly harvested, dried and processed coffee, while traders should maintain transparent, quality-based pricing to protect Uganda’s reputation in international markets.
Ministry says farmers remain above break-even
The Minister also rejected the suggestion that a fall in market prices automatically means coffee farmers are operating at a loss.
According to the statement, Uganda’s coffee production models indicate that farmers can break even at an FAQ price of about Shs7,000 per kilogramme, particularly where productivity and basic value addition are improved.
The Ministry’s coffee manual also highlights value addition and improved handling as ways of increasing returns along the coffee value chain.
Government steps up climate response
The Ministry said government is distributing subsidised fertilisers and other productivity-enhancing inputs under a Presidential Directive, while MAAIF is working with the Ministry of Water and Environment and other agencies to expand irrigation.
The measures are intended to help farmers cope with changing weather patterns and improve productivity.
MAAIF is also implementing climate-smart agriculture interventions involving improved planting materials, water-management practices and agricultural technologies.
The Ministry said it expects coffee and cocoa prices to stabilise and recover slightly over the next six months, although the outlook remains dependent on global supply, weather and other market conditions.
Uganda’s coffee sector remains a major source of foreign exchange. MAAIF reported record coffee export performance in the 2024/25 financial year, while the Uganda Coffee Development Authority continues to monitor domestic and international prices.