Uganda’s economy is projected to grow by 9.9% in 2027, outperforming Nigeria, South Africa and several East African economies, according to the International Monetary Fund’s October 2026 World Economic Outlook.
The IMF’s latest projection represents an upward revision from its April 2026 outlook, when the Fund projected Uganda’s economy to grow by 8.2% in 2027.
The October forecast raises that estimate to 9.9%, an increase of 1.7 percentage points, reflecting the stronger growth outlook as Uganda moves towards commercial oil production.
The projection represents a sharp acceleration from the 6.2% growth forecast for Uganda in 2026, placing the country among the fastest-growing economies in sub-Saharan Africa.
The IMF’s October report, published on October 13, projects Nigeria’s economy to grow by 4.3% in 2027, compared with 1.3% for South Africa. Kenya’s economy is forecast to expand by 4.7%, Tanzania’s by 5.9% and Rwanda’s by 7.2%.
Ethiopia, one of Africa’s faster-growing economies, is projected to grow by 7.8% in 2027, also below Uganda’s forecast.
The projections appear in Annex Table 1.1.5 of the IMF report, which provides estimates and forecasts for real GDP growth, consumer prices, current account balances and unemployment across sub-Saharan African economies.
The IMF projects the region’s economy to grow by 4.5% in both 2026 and 2027, meaning Uganda’s forecast is more than twice the regional average for next year.
Uganda’s anticipated economic expansion comes as the country prepares to begin commercial oil production. Investments in oil fields, pipelines and associated infrastructure are expected to contribute to economic activity as the petroleum sector develops.
In a separate assessment of Uganda, the IMF has said the start of oil production is expected to lift economic growth above 8% annually during the 2026/27 and 2027/28 financial years. The Fund also expects non-oil economic activity to remain an important contributor to growth.
However, the headline growth forecast does not necessarily mean that households will experience a corresponding improvement in living standards. The wider economic impact will depend on how oil revenues are managed, whether investment generates employment and local business opportunities, and how public resources are allocated.
The IMF’s October outlook also warns that global economic resilience faces risks from geopolitical tensions, energy-market disruptions and rising borrowing costs. These uncertainties could affect investment, trade and economic performance.