This week, the Uganda Bureau of Statistics (UBOS), held a high-end meeting with officials from the World Bank, Bank of Uganda, Ministry of Finance and other partners to discuss the State of Uganda’s Economy.
The meeting came after World Bank disputed Uganda’s middle-income status as declared during this year’s State of the Nation Address.
UBOS, the agency mandated to coordinate, monitor and supervise Uganda’s National Statistical System, later made a statement to clarify the Government of Uganda and World Bank Economic reports.
According to the July 6 statement, the estimates for Gross National Income (GNI) per capita released by the World Bank are consistent with the government of Uganda’s estimates.
The reference periods in the two reports differ as the government of Uganda was most up-to-date based on FY 2021/22 while the World Bank was FY 2020/21
“World Bank used United Nations (UN) population projections (47.1 million) for GNI per capita, GoU projection is 42.4 million people.”
Dr Chris N. Mukiza, the UBOS executive director, said the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) per capita for the financial year 2021/22 is $1,04 which is within the middle-income status threshold.
The World Bank’s economic update indicated that Uganda’s gross national income per capita for 2020/21 financial year was $840 which meant that the country had not crossed the threshold for middle-income status.
“This created confusion among the general public. The reference periods in the two reports are different. Whereas the report by the government was based on the financial year 2021/22, the one by World Bank was based on the financial year 2020/21.”
According to him, World Bank doesn’t have GNI per capita for the financial year 2021/22 and the projections of UBOS and World Bank didn’t show significant statistical variations.
“The threshold for transition from one level to another varies from year to year. The set target Per Capita Income by World Bank for 2021 is US$1,035, for 2022 is US$1,045 and 2023 is US$1,085.”
As a way forward, Dr Mukiza said UBOS and the UN office will meet and harmonize population projections and report back in a month.
“Up-to-date population data will be released after the Census. UBOS will report on GNI estimates and World Bank will use FY 2021/22 figures,” Mukiza noted.
The Uganda National and Housing Census (Population Census) is expected to be conducted in September 2023.