Uganda Private Sector Forecasts Growth in 2026 Election Year, Stanbic Survey Indicates

Uganda’s private sector maintained momentum at year-end, with the Stanbic Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) rising slightly to 54.0 in December from 53.8 in November 2025, signaling continued expansion in business activity. Readings above 50.0 indicate improving conditions.

Sustained Growth Amid Employment Stagnation

Despite a broad stagnation in employment following a ten-month period of job creation, firms reported strong output and new orders, with input buying and inventory accumulation rising to meet demand. Temporary staff supported increases in workforce where needed, and backlogs grew modestly as firms managed higher order inflows.

Prices and Costs Reflect Robust Demand

Input costs increased, driven by utilities, construction materials, and sugar, while wage pressures remained broadly flat. Companies passed through higher input costs to customers, supported by strong demand, leading to rising output prices.

*Outlook Remains Positive for 2026*
Firms signaled continued optimism for output in the coming year, fueled by sustained consumer demand, investment in advertising, and customer outreach.

Economist Christopher Legilisho of Stanbic Bank said, “Conditions in Uganda’s private sector remain upbeat. Expansion is being driven by strong orders and robust demand, while employment remains healthy. Inventory and input purchasing activity reflect confidence in the year ahead.”

Survey Scope
The PMI is compiled by S&P Global from responses of roughly 400 purchasing managers across agriculture, mining, manufacturing, construction, wholesale, retail, and services. The index weights New Orders (30%), Output (25%), Employment (20%), Suppliers’ Delivery Times (15%), and Stocks of Purchases (10%).