Kalifungwa Urges Inclusive Growth as Uganda Approaches First Oil

Stanbic Bank Uganda Chief Executive Officer Mumba Kalifungwa has urged national leaders to take a more deliberate role in shaping Uganda’s economic future, saying the country’s progress should not be watched from the sidelines but actively driven toward inclusive and sustainable prosperity.

Kalifungwa made the remarks while speaking at the 5th Stanbic Economic Forum held on Thursday under the theme “Uganda’s Inflection Point: Competing in a Rewired Global Economy.”

He pointed to the near completion of the East African Crude Oil Pipeline (EACOP) — now estimated at 97 percent complete — describing it as the most significant infrastructure investment in Uganda’s history.

“With an estimated 1.6 billion barrels of recoverable reserves and peak production of 230,000 barrels per day, first oil expected later this year will reshape Uganda’s fiscal position, industrial capability, and regional standing,” Kalifungwa said.

However, he stressed that the true impact of the oil and gas sector goes far beyond projected revenues, highlighting the need for Uganda to focus on job creation, strengthening local supply chains, skills development, and building long-term national capacity.

Kalifungwa also highlighted emerging global trends shaping Uganda’s competitiveness, including shifting trade arrangements, global supply chain changes, uncertainty around the future of AGOA, and the rapid expansion of artificial intelligence (AI).

He noted that Africa’s AI market is projected to almost quadruple by 2030, warning that Uganda must act quickly to remain relevant.

“AI is no longer a distant frontier. The question is not whether Uganda participates, but how inclusively and competitively it does so,” he said.

Kalifungwa reaffirmed Stanbic Bank’s long-standing partnership with Uganda, noting that the bank has operated in the country for more than 35 years, financing major infrastructure projects, supporting enterprises, and enabling families to build economic security under its purpose statement: “Uganda is our home, we drive her growth.”

He said the bank’s strategy remains anchored on promoting financial inclusion, enterprise development, climate resilience, infrastructure financing, and corporate philanthropy, with special focus on women, youth, and farmers.

Meanwhile, the Forum’s keynote speaker, Jibran Qureishi, Standard Bank Group’s Head of Africa Regions Economic Research, delivered a positive economic outlook for Uganda, projecting the country’s growth trajectory to steadily approach the seven percent GDP threshold.

Qureishi said following estimated growth of 6.3 percent in the FY 2024/25, Uganda’s economy is expected to expand between 6.5 and 6.7 percent in FY 2025/26, with growth likely rising to seven percent or higher in FY 2026/27, largely supported by oil-related investments and continued public infrastructure spending.

However, he noted that although first oil is expected from late 2026, the most significant benefits to government revenues, foreign exchange inflows, and the balance of payments may become more visible closer to 2030, as production levels increase.

Qureishi also praised the government for maintaining fiscal discipline over the past decade, particularly for avoiding premature spending of future oil earnings — a move he said has strengthened investor confidence and preserved macroeconomic stability.

Nevertheless, he cautioned that strong macroeconomic indicators do not always translate into improved household welfare, pointing to challenges such as capital-intensive growth, a large informal sector, inflation pressures since COVID-19, and fiscal adjustments under IMF support.

“The challenge we face is increasingly about asset holders versus non-asset holders,” he warned, noting that unresolved economic frustrations could escalate into broader social and political tensions.

On Uganda’s external position, Qureishi highlighted improved foreign exchange stability, noting that the country’s gross FX reserves rose sharply from about USD 3 billion at the end of 2024 to nearly USD 6 billion by December 2025, strengthening import cover and reflecting an improving balance of payments outlook.

For the past five years, Stanbic Bank has used the Economic Forum to convene key stakeholders from the public and private sectors to assess Uganda’s economic direction and policy priorities. This year’s gathering brought together policymakers, business leaders, and experts to explore how Uganda can enhance competitiveness and achieve sustainable growth in an increasingly complex global economy.